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Technical Analysis
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  • Volume of toxic assets in Germany may be up to $800B, one third of GDP
    Quote: ‘Britain is the place where the ruling class does not rule, the working class does not work, and the middle class is not middle.’ George Mikes (1912-1987) The News: Volume of toxic assets in Germany may be up to $800B, one third of GDP. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 05:00 JP Bank of Japan Monthly Report. Shirakawa speaks to Keidanren, Tokyo. 05:00 JP November Supermarket Sales –0.6% Y/Y versus –1.6% October. 07:00 DE November
  • US Fed buys $2.4B of Fannie and Freddie Mac debt to lower mortgage rates
    Quote: ‘’What about apologising?’ my tennis partner went on. ‘Shall we do it after every stroke, or at the end of each game, or when we say good-bye, or never? I get so tired of saying ‘’Sorry’’.’ A. A. Milne (1882-1956) The News: US Fed buys $2.4B of Fannie and Freddie Mac debt to lower mortgage rates. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. (23:50) JP October All Industry Activity Index –0.5% versus revised 0% September. 00:01 GB December GfK
  • Chrysler to close all factories for at least a month and re-opens merger talks with GM
    Quote: ‘The truth may set you free. But first it will p*ss you off.’ Gloria Steinem (1934-) The News: Chrysler to close all factories for at least a month and re-opens merger talks with GM. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 04:00 JP Bank of Japan starts a two-day rate-setting meeting (almost unanimously expected unchanged at 0.30%). 05:30 JP November Tokyo Department Store Sales –7.2% Y/Y, Nationwide –6.4%, versus –8.4% and –6.8% October.
  • FOMC sets Fed Funds target at record low between 0.00% and 0.25%
    Quote: ‘It is bad enough to know the past; it would be intolerable to know the future.’ W. Somerset Maugham (1874-1965) The News: FOMC sets Fed Funds target at record low between 0.00% and 0.25%. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 09:30 GB Bank of England MPC Minutes of December 3/4th meeting. 09:30 GB November Jobless Claims Change (+34K to +60K, Claimant Count 3.0% to 3.2%, vs +36.5K and 3.0% Oct). 09:30 GB October Average Earnings (+3.1% to
  • Markets terribly thin and subject to sharp price moves
    Quote: ‘If I’d asked people what they wanted, they’d have said faster horses.’ Henry Ford I (1863-1947) The News: Bank of Japan governor Shirakawa says conditions in the country ‘severe’. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. (23:50) JP October Tertiary Industry Index +0.4% versus revised –0.7% September. 03:45 JP auction result of 20-year JGB: bid-to-cover 2.62, tail 0.22, coupon 2.1%, stop 2.082%. 07:00 EU25 November New Car Registrations
  • Ireland suggests €10B bank bailout to be funded by the country's pension fund
    Quote: ‘All things are full of signs, and it is a wise man who can learn about one thing from another’ Plotinus (205-270) The News: Ireland suggests €10B bank bailout to be funded by the country’s pension fund. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. (23:50) JP Q4 Tankan: Large Manufacturers –24 (one of the steepest declines from previous survey on record), Outlook -36; Non-Manufacturing -9, Outlook -14; All Industry Capex –0.2%; versus –3, -4, 1,
  • US auto bailout blocked by the senate
    Quote: ‘Any idiot can face a crisis – it’s day to day living that wears you out.’ Anton Chekhov (1860-1904) The News: US auto bailout blocked by the senate. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 05:00 JP November Consumer Confidence 28.7, Households 28.4, versus 29.8 and 29.4 October. 10:00 EZ15 Q3 Labour Costs (+2.5% to +3.4% Y/Y versus +2.7% Q2). 10:00 EZ15 October Industrial Production (-2.6% to 0% M/M, -5.2% to –2.3% Y/Y, vs –1.6% and –2.4%
  • South Korea Central Bank slashes rates by a record 100 basis points to 3.00%
    Quote: ‘I feel sorry for people who don’t drink. When they wake up in the morning, that’s as good as they’re going to feel all day.’ Frank Sinatra (1915-1998) The News: South Korea Central Bank slashes rates by a record 100 basis points to 3.00%, lowest since 1999. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 08:00 EZ15 ECB’s Trichet speaks on financial integration, Frankfurt. 08:30 CH Swiss National Bank interest rate decision (expect –50 to –100 basis
  • The Fed is said to be considering issuing its own debt
    Quote: ‘Zac: The IMF is not a charity. It has to insist on absolute austerity. Nigel: Absolutely. It can’t be namby pamby. These countries must accept restricted diets. The governments must explain, if there are food riots, That paying the western banks is the priority’ Caryl Churchill (1938-) The News: The Fed is said to be considering issuing its own debt. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. (23:50) JP November Domestic CGPI –1.9% M/M, +2.8%
  • Quebec's ruling Liberals strengthen grip by winning 66 of 125 seats in provincial elections
    Quote: ‘If you want to stay young looking, pick your parents very carefully.’ Dick Clark (1929-) The News: Quebec’s ruling Liberals strengthen grip by winning 66 of 125 seats in provincial elections. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. (23:50) JP final Q3 GDP –0.5% Q/Q, -1.8% Y/Y, Deflator –1.6%, versus –0.1%, –0.4%, and –1.6% Q3. 00:01 GB November BRC Retail Sales Monitor –2.6% Y/Y versus –2.2 November. 00:01 GB November RICS House Price
  • India cuts rates 100 basis points and announces $4B extra spending
    Quote: ‘This is by no means rare behaviour. Most men seem to think they have finished when, in fact, they are only half way through.’ ‘Mrs Mills Solves All Your Problems’ The Sunday Times 2008 The News: India cuts rates 100 basis points and announces $4B extra spending. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. (23:50) JP November M3 Money Supply +0.6% Y/Y, Bank Lending +4.1%, versus +0.6% and revised +2.8% October. (23:50) JP October Trade Balance,
  • More banks and brokers announce staff cuts
    Quote: ‘Short term has no future.’ Dexia Bank 2008 The News: More banks and brokers announce staff cuts. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. (20:00) NZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Ratio record –150 basis points to 5.00% from 6.50%. (23:50) JP Q3 Capital Spending –13.0%, Ex-Software –13.3% to –7.9%, versus –6.5% and –7.6% Q2. 06:45 CH Q3 GDP 0% Q/Q, +1.6% Y/Y, versus revised +0.3% and +2.6% Q2. 08:30 SW Swedish Riksbank interest
  • Thai protesters lift airport siege with an official ‘handing over' ceremony, singing the king's anthem
    Quote: ‘Raw capitalism is a dead end.’ Hank Paulson (1946-) The News: Thai protesters lift airport siege with an official ‘handing over’ ceremony, singing the king’s anthem. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 00:01 GB November Nationwide Consumer Confidence 50 versus 55 October. 07:00 EU NATO foreign ministers meet, Brussels. 09:30 GB November Services PMI (39.8 to 42.5 versus 42.4 October). 10:00 EZ15 October Retail Sales (-1.0% to +1.0% M/M,
  • It will eliminate 9,200 jobs at Washington Mutual, over 21% of workforce
    Quote: ‘Childbirth was like being stuck in a room with a thousand skinned rabbits.’ Gordon Ramsey (1966-) The News: JP Morgan says it will eliminate 9,200 jobs at Washington Mutual, over 21% of workforce. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. (Late) US November Domestic Vehicle Sales 7.8M annualised versus 7.9M October. 03:30 AU Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates 100 basis points to 4.25% from 5.25%; sentiment fragile. 03:45 JP auction